Diagnostic Accuracy of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score In Predicting Mortality In Patients With Acute Pancreatitis

Amsa Zafar, Syed Ali Haider, Muhammad Zubair, Raza Haider, Zahid Ali Memon

Abstract

Objective

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score in predicting the early mortality of acute pancreatitis.

Study design

Cross-sectional study.

Place & Duration of study

Department of Surgery, Dr. Ruth K.M. Pfau Civil Hospital Karachi, from November 2020 to May 2021.

Methodology

Total of 146 patients were included in the study. SOFA score >7 was used to predict the mortality. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Post stratification Chi-square test was applied. A p value of <0.05 was considered significant. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and diagnostic accuracy were calculated for SOFA score at admission and day 7 for predicting mortality of acute pancreatitis at day-28.

Results

There were 81(55.5%) male and 65(44.5%) female patients. The mortality in this study was 19.2%. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy of SOFA score at admission were 78.57%, 95.76%, 81.48%, 94.95%, and 92.72% as compared to SOFA score on day 7; 96.42%, 100%, 100%, 99.15% and 99.31% respectively in predicting mortality in acute pancreatitis.

Conclusion

Higher sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of SOFA score in predicting mortality in acute pancreatitis was on day 7 as compared to SOFA score at admission.

Key words

Diagnostic accuracy, SOFA score, Acute pancreatitis, Mortality.